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Magdeburg U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Magdeburg U19
Magdeburg U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
4/18/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Magdeburg U1949%
×Draw21%
Arminia Bielefeld U1930%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magdeburg U19
2.21
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.72

Magdeburg U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Magdeburg U19
2.37
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.44

allows per match

Magdeburg U19
2.00
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.06

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw
70%
Magdeburg U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19
79%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19
51%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+
29%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals
89%
Magdeburg U19 2+ goals
65%
Magdeburg U19 3+ goals
38%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
82%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
51%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.21

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more
49%
level
21%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
30%

Magdeburg U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Magdeburg
Arminia
D. Wölfel
Manager: D. Wölfel
M. Drobe
Manager: M. Drobe

U19 Bundesliga: Magdeburg U19 3–0 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Magdeburg U19 beat Arminia Bielefeld U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 18, 2026.