Magdeburg II 7–0 Motor Marienberg: Result & Stats

Magdeburg II

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Motor Marienberg

9/16/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 6Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Magdeburg II79%

×Draw13%

Motor Marienberg8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg IIExpected goals in this matchMotor Marienberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

0.93

Magdeburg II

3.06

Motor Marienberg

0.93

Magdeburg II creates 229% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

2.53

creates per match

0.73

1.13

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Magdeburg II

2.53

Motor Marienberg

0.73

allows per match

Magdeburg II

1.13

Motor Marienberg

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg II ↓

Motor Marienberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Magdeburg II or draw

92%

Magdeburg II or Motor Marienberg

87%

Draw or Motor Marienberg

21%

Winning margin

Magdeburg II wins by 2+

60%

Motor Marienberg wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Magdeburg II 1+ goals

95%

Magdeburg II 2+ goals

80%

Magdeburg II 3+ goals

57%

Motor Marienberg 1+ goals

61%

Motor Marienberg 2+ goals

24%

Motor Marienberg 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)

90%

Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg II at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg II attack 2.53 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.06

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Magdeburg II scores more

79%

level

13%

Motor Marienberg scores more

8%

Magdeburg II at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff