Magdeburg II 3–1 Einheit Rudolstadt: Result & Stats

Magdeburg II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Einheit Rudolstadt

3/8/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 20Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Magdeburg II61%

×Draw19%

Einheit Rudolstadt20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg IIExpected goals in this matchEinheit Rudolstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.26

Magdeburg II

2.33

Einheit Rudolstadt

1.26

Magdeburg II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 82 away

2.53

creates per match

1.40

1.13

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Magdeburg II

2.53

Einheit Rudolstadt

1.40

allows per match

Magdeburg II

1.13

Einheit Rudolstadt

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg II ↓

Einheit Rudolstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Magdeburg II or draw

80%

Magdeburg II or Einheit Rudolstadt

81%

Draw or Einheit Rudolstadt

39%

Winning margin

Magdeburg II wins by 2+

39%

Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Magdeburg II 1+ goals

90%

Magdeburg II 2+ goals

67%

Magdeburg II 3+ goals

41%

Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals

72%

Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals

36%

Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)

76%

Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg II at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Einheit Rudolstadt away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg II attack 2.53 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.33

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.40 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Magdeburg II scores more

61%

level

19%

Einheit Rudolstadt scores more

20%

Magdeburg II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff