Magdeburg II 1–4 Budissa Bautzen: Result & Stats

Magdeburg II

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Budissa Bautzen

8/20/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 3Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Magdeburg II57%

×Draw20%

Budissa Bautzen24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg IIExpected goals in this matchBudissa Bautzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.46

Magdeburg II

2.33

Budissa Bautzen

1.46

Magdeburg II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

2.53

creates per match

1.78

1.13

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Magdeburg II

2.53

Budissa Bautzen

1.78

allows per match

Magdeburg II

1.13

Budissa Bautzen

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg II ↓

Budissa Bautzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Magdeburg II or draw

76%

Magdeburg II or Budissa Bautzen

80%

Draw or Budissa Bautzen

43%

Winning margin

Magdeburg II wins by 2+

35%

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Magdeburg II 1+ goals

90%

Magdeburg II 2+ goals

67%

Magdeburg II 3+ goals

41%

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals

77%

Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals

43%

Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)

71%

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg II at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg II attack 2.53 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.33

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Magdeburg II scores more

57%

level

20%

Budissa Bautzen scores more

24%

Magdeburg II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff