Magallanes 2–3 Santiago Wanderers: Result & Stats

Magallanes

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Santiago Wanderers

M. Alegre 85'

M. Vasquez 83'

J. Silva 90'

M. Camarda 59', 25'

4/18/2026

Primera B · Round 8Estadio Santiago Bueras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Magallanes45%

×Draw27%

Santiago Wanderers29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MagallanesExpected goals in this matchSantiago Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.07

Magallanes

1.41

Santiago Wanderers

1.07

Magallanes creates 32% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 88 away

1.52

creates per match

1.17

0.97

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Magallanes

1.52

Santiago Wanderers

1.17

allows per match

Magallanes

0.97

Santiago Wanderers

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magallanes+0.00on par

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magallanes ↓

Santiago Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Magallanes or draw

71%

Magallanes or Santiago Wanderers

73%

Draw or Santiago Wanderers

55%

Winning margin

Magallanes wins by 2+

21%

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Magallanes 1+ goals

76%

Magallanes 2+ goals

41%

Magallanes 3+ goals

17%

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

66%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

29%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Magallanes (draw refunded)

61%

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magallanes at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.97 · 99 matches

Santiago Wanderers away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.30 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magallanes attack 1.52 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.41

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.17 + Magallanes defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Magallanes scores more

45%

level

27%

Santiago Wanderers scores more

29%

Magallanes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Magallanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

34'

34'

36'

38'

45'

46'

C. Valenzuela← L. Margas

46'

J. Luna← C. Ponce

46'

I. Flores← D. San Martin

59'

A. Toledo← V. Cabezas

59'

M. Camarda

64'

E. Neira← S. Coronel

64'

G. Guzman← B. Liuzzi

64'

J. Silva← M. Villarroel

69'

L. Avendano

76'

M. Alegre← R. Farfan

76'

F. Yanez← H. Salinas Flores

81'

I. Flores

81'

V. Vargas← L. Avendano

83'

85'

85'

90'

Magallanes

Santiago

12

Olivares

7

Herrera

3

▼

18

16

5

20

▼

Avendano

15

▼

Villarroe

14

▼

Ponce

9

⚽2

Camarda

37

▼

Martin

1

Munoz

4

⚽

Vasquez

22

Meneses

6

James

30

▼

Flores

3

Walters

5

▼

Liuzzi

32

▼

Coronel

19

▼

Farfan

35

▼

Cabezas

11

Fredes

Manager: Miguel Ponce Torres

59'▲A. Toledo←▼V. Cabezas

64'▲E. Neira←▼S. Coronel

64'▲G. Guzman←▼B. Liuzzi

76'▲M. Alegre←▼R. Farfan

76'▲F. Yanez←▼H. Salinas Flores

Magallanes substitutes

17Olguin7Toledo10Jorquera20Neira23Alegre24Yanez28Guzman

Manager: Francisco Palladino

46'▲C. Valenzuela←▼L. Margas

46'▲J. Luna←▼C. Ponce

46'▲I. Flores←▼D. San Martin

64'▲J. Silva←▼M. Villarroel

81'▲V. Vargas←▼L. Avendano

Santiago Wanderers substitutes

36Martinez31Valenzuela8Silva10Luna23Flores32Vargas29Silva

Match Recap: Magallanes vs Santiago Wanderers

Santiago Wanderers beat Magallanes 3-2 in Primera B on April 18, 2026.

Goals: M. Camarda (25', 59'), M. Vasquez (83'), M. Alegre (85'), J. Silva (90').

The match was played at Estadio Santiago Bueras in Santiago de Chile.

Magallanes vs Santiago Wanderers — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Magallanes vs Santiago Wanderers