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Magallanes vs Fernández Vial — Primera B 2018

Magallanes
Magallanes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
7/14/2021Primera BPrimera B · Round 11Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Magallanes46%
×Draw26%
Fernández Vial27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magallanes
1.44
Fernández Vial
1.04

Magallanes creates 38% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 31 away

creates per match

Magallanes
1.50
Fernández Vial
1.10

allows per match

Magallanes
0.97
Fernández Vial
1.39

finishing

Magallanes+0.00on par
Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magallanes ↓

Fernández Vial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Magallanes or draw
73%
Magallanes or Fernández Vial
74%
Draw or Fernández Vial
54%

Winning margin

Magallanes wins by 2+
23%
Fernández Vial wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Magallanes 1+ goals
76%
Magallanes 2+ goals
42%
Magallanes 3+ goals
18%
Fernández Vial 1+ goals
65%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
28%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Magallanes (draw refunded)
63%
Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magallanes at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.97 · 103 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magallanes attack 1.50 + Fernández Vial defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fernández Vial attack 1.10 + Magallanes defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Magallanes scores more
46%
level
26%
Fernández Vial scores more
27%

Magallanes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Magallanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Magallanes vs Fernández Vial

Magallanes beat Fernández Vial 2-1 in Primera B on July 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in San Bernardo.