Mafra 2–1 União de Leiria: Result & Stats

Mafra

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

União de Leiria

10/28/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 9Estádio Municipal de Mafra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mafra34%

×Draw27%

União de Leiria39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MafraExpected goals in this matchUnião de Leiria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.27

Mafra

1.16

União de Leiria

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 51 away

1.18

creates per match

1.37

1.17

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Mafra

1.18

União de Leiria

1.37

allows per match

Mafra

1.17

União de Leiria

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mafra+0.00on par

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mafra ↓

União de Leiria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mafra or draw

61%

Mafra or União de Leiria

73%

Draw or União de Leiria

66%

Winning margin

Mafra wins by 2+

14%

União de Leiria wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Mafra 1+ goals

69%

Mafra 2+ goals

32%

Mafra 3+ goals

11%

União de Leiria 1+ goals

72%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

36%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mafra (draw refunded)

46%

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mafra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.17 · 114 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mafra attack 1.18 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + Mafra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mafra scores more

34%

level

27%

União de Leiria scores more

39%

União de Leiria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff