Mafra vs Tondela — Taça de Portugal 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Mafra43%
Tondela33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mafra creates 18% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mafra ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mafra at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches
Tondela away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mafra attack 1.75 + Tondela defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63
Tondela attack 1.50 + Mafra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Mafra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Mafra substitutes
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Mafra host Tondela on Wednesday, 20 April 2022 at 19:15. The match is part of the Taça de Portugal 2018/2019 season.
Taça de Portugal: Mafra 1–1 Tondela
Mafra and Tondela drew 1-1 in Taça de Portugal on April 20, 2022.
Goals: Pedro Pacheco (45'), J. Boselli (89').
Mafra controlled possession (69%) and registered 19 shots to 7.
The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Mafra in Mafra.