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Mafra vs SC Braga B — Segunda Liga 2018

Mafra
Mafra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SC Braga B
SC Braga B
Harramiz 38'
Denisson 90'
4/6/2019Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 28Estádio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mafra40%
×Draw28%
SC Braga B32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mafra
1.23
SC Braga B
1.08

Mafra creates 14% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 21 away

creates per match

Mafra
1.18
SC Braga B
1.00

allows per match

Mafra
1.17
SC Braga B
1.29

finishing

Mafra+0.00on par
SC Braga B+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mafra ↓

SC Braga B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mafra or draw
68%
Mafra or SC Braga B
72%
Draw or SC Braga B
60%

Winning margin

Mafra wins by 2+
17%
SC Braga B wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mafra 1+ goals
71%
Mafra 2+ goals
35%
Mafra 3+ goals
13%
SC Braga B 1+ goals
66%
SC Braga B 2+ goals
29%
SC Braga B 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mafra (draw refunded)
55%
SC Braga B (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mafra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.17 · 114 matches

SC Braga B away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mafra attack 1.18 + SC Braga B defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

SC Braga B attack 1.00 + Mafra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mafra scores more
40%
level
28%
SC Braga B scores more
32%

Mafra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Harramiz
90'
Juary Soares
90'
Denisson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mafra vs SC Braga B

Mafra and SC Braga B drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on April 6, 2019.

Goals: Harramiz (38'), Denisson (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra).