Mafra 1–1 Lusitano Évora 1911: Result & Stats

Mafra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lusitano Évora 1911

S. Iheanacho 61'

F. Almara 70'

11/30/2025

Liga 3 · Round 11Estadio Municipal de Mafra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mafra46%

×Draw26%

Lusitano Évora 191127%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MafraExpected goals in this matchLusitano Évora 1911

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.06

Mafra

1.46

Lusitano Évora 1911

1.06

Mafra creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

1.56

creates per match

0.93

1.19

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Mafra

1.56

Lusitano Évora 1911

0.93

allows per match

Mafra

1.19

Lusitano Évora 1911

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mafra+0.00on par

Lusitano Évora 1911+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mafra ↓

Lusitano Évora 1911 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mafra or draw

73%

Mafra or Lusitano Évora 1911

74%

Draw or Lusitano Évora 1911

54%

Winning margin

Mafra wins by 2+

23%

Lusitano Évora 1911 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mafra 1+ goals

77%

Mafra 2+ goals

43%

Mafra 3+ goals

18%

Lusitano Évora 1911 1+ goals

65%

Lusitano Évora 1911 2+ goals

29%

Lusitano Évora 1911 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mafra (draw refunded)

63%

Lusitano Évora 1911 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mafra at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Lusitano Évora 1911 away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mafra attack 1.56 + Lusitano Évora 1911 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lusitano Évora 1911 attack 0.93 + Mafra defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mafra scores more

46%

level

26%

Lusitano Évora 1911 scores more

27%

Mafra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

37'

M. Aguas

59'

V. Goncalves← R. Moreira

59'

S. Iheanacho← L. Neves

61'

S. Iheanacho

70'

F. Almara↳ J. Pinto

72'

A. Gomes← T. Baptista

73'

J. Pinto

76'

Andrey← R. Pinto

78'

81'

88'

88'

Mafra

Lusitano

22

Martins

4

Santana

5

Palancha

8

▼

Baptista

9

▼

Lopes

10

Aguas

11

⚽

▼

Almara

25

A

Pinto

30

Davou

36

▼

53

99

2

5

6

▼

9

13

29

30

46

85

▼

Neves

90

▼

Moreira

Manager: Paulo Alves

59'▲V. Goncalves←▼R. Moreira

59'▲S. Iheanacho←▼L. Neves

76'▲Andrey←▼R. Pinto

Mafra substitutes

1Lemos7Matos8Goncalves11Zakpa19Iheanacho23Serra27Precatado39Andrey66Ferreira

Manager: Russiano

72'▲A. Gomes←▼T. Baptista

78'▲G. Isnaba←▼D. Lopes

88'▲R. Monteiro←▼T. Lima

88'▲Y. Sonhi←▼F. Almara

Lusitano Évora 1911 substitutes

12Valverde7Sequeira18Mendonca29Isnaba24Prego37Monteiro77Sonhi44Lourenco80Gomes