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Mafra vs FC Porto — Taça de Portugal 2018

Mafra
Mafra
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FC Porto
FC Porto
11/8/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Municipal de Mafra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mafra22%
×Draw22%
FC Porto56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mafra
1.10
FC Porto
1.90

FC Porto creates 73% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 24 away

creates per match

Mafra
1.75
FC Porto
2.54

allows per match

Mafra
1.25
FC Porto
0.46

finishing

Mafra+0.00on par
FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mafra ↓

FC Porto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mafra or draw
44%
Mafra or FC Porto
78%
Draw or FC Porto
78%

Winning margin

Mafra wins by 2+
8%
FC Porto wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Mafra 1+ goals
67%
Mafra 2+ goals
30%
Mafra 3+ goals
10%
FC Porto 1+ goals
85%
FC Porto 2+ goals
56%
FC Porto 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Mafra (draw refunded)
28%
FC Porto (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mafra at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

FC Porto away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mafra attack 1.75 + FC Porto defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.10

FC Porto attack 2.54 + Mafra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mafra scores more
22%
level
22%
FC Porto scores more
56%

FC Porto at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Mafra 0–3 FC Porto

FC Porto beat Mafra 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Mafra in Mafra.