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Mafra vs Fafe — Taça de Portugal 2018

Mafra
Mafra
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fafe
Fafe
R. Freitas 120'
10/20/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal de Mafra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mafra26%
×Draw27%
Fafe47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mafra
1.00
Fafe
1.44

Fafe creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mafra
1.75
Fafe
1.63

allows per match

Mafra
1.25
Fafe
0.25

finishing

Mafra+0.00on par
Fafe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mafra ↓

Fafe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mafra or draw
53%
Mafra or Fafe
73%
Draw or Fafe
74%

Winning margin

Mafra wins by 2+
10%
Fafe wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mafra 1+ goals
63%
Mafra 2+ goals
26%
Mafra 3+ goals
8%
Fafe 1+ goals
76%
Fafe 2+ goals
42%
Fafe 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mafra (draw refunded)
36%
Fafe (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mafra at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Fafe away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mafra attack 1.75 + Fafe defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Fafe attack 1.63 + Mafra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mafra scores more
26%
level
27%
Fafe scores more
47%

Fafe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

85'
85'
120'
R. Freitas
120'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mafra 0 – 0 Fafe

Mafra and Fafe drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2019.

Goals: R. Freitas (120').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Mafra in Mafra.