Mafra 3–2 Cova De Piedade: Result & Stats

Mafra

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Cova De Piedade

8/10/2019

Segunda Liga · Round 1Estádio Dr. Mário da Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mafra46%

×Draw27%

Cova De Piedade27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MafraExpected goals in this matchCova De Piedade

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.00

Mafra

1.40

Cova De Piedade

1.00

Mafra creates 40% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 46 away

1.18

creates per match

0.83

1.17

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Mafra

1.18

Cova De Piedade

0.83

allows per match

Mafra

1.17

Cova De Piedade

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mafra+0.00on par

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mafra ↓

Cova De Piedade →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mafra or draw

73%

Mafra or Cova De Piedade

73%

Draw or Cova De Piedade

54%

Winning margin

Mafra wins by 2+

22%

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mafra 1+ goals

75%

Mafra 2+ goals

41%

Mafra 3+ goals

17%

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals

63%

Cova De Piedade 2+ goals

26%

Cova De Piedade 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mafra (draw refunded)

63%

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mafra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.17 · 114 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mafra attack 1.18 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + Mafra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mafra scores more

46%

level

27%

Cova De Piedade scores more

27%

Mafra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff