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Mafra vs Academico Viseu — Segunda Liga 2018

Mafra
Mafra
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
3/12/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 24Estádio Municipal de Mafra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Mafra39%
×Draw27%
Academico Viseu34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mafra
1.28
Academico Viseu
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 133 away

creates per match

Mafra
1.18
Academico Viseu
1.16

allows per match

Mafra
1.17
Academico Viseu
1.38

finishing

Mafra+0.00on par
Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mafra ↓

Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mafra or draw
66%
Mafra or Academico Viseu
73%
Draw or Academico Viseu
61%

Winning margin

Mafra wins by 2+
17%
Academico Viseu wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mafra 1+ goals
72%
Mafra 2+ goals
37%
Mafra 3+ goals
14%
Academico Viseu 1+ goals
69%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
33%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mafra (draw refunded)
54%
Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mafra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.17 · 114 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mafra attack 1.18 + Academico Viseu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Academico Viseu attack 1.16 + Mafra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mafra scores more
39%
level
27%
Academico Viseu scores more
34%

Mafra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mafra vs Academico Viseu

Mafra beat Academico Viseu 2-0 in Segunda Liga on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Mafra in Mafra.