Mafra U19 4–3 Tondela U19: Result & Stats

Mafra U19

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Tondela U19

1/11/2025

League #1041 · Round 18Campo Do Texugo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mafra U1946%

×Draw22%

Tondela U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mafra U19Expected goals in this matchTondela U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.67

Mafra U19

2.00

Tondela U19

1.67

Mafra U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Mafra U19

2.00

Tondela U19

1.67

allows per match

Mafra U19

1.67

Tondela U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mafra U19+0.00on par

Tondela U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mafra U19 ↓

Tondela U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Mafra U19 or draw

67%

Mafra U19 or Tondela U19

78%

Draw or Tondela U19

54%

Winning margin

Mafra U19 wins by 2+

26%

Tondela U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mafra U19 1+ goals

86%

Mafra U19 2+ goals

59%

Mafra U19 3+ goals

32%

Tondela U19 1+ goals

81%

Tondela U19 2+ goals

50%

Tondela U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mafra U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Tondela U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mafra U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Tondela U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mafra U19 attack 2.00 + Tondela U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Tondela U19 attack 1.67 + Mafra U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mafra U19 scores more

46%

level

22%

Tondela U19 scores more

33%

Mafra U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mafra U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff