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MAFCO vs Red Lions — Super League 2026

MAFCO
MAFCO
ABD
12:30
Red Lions
Red Lions
7/18/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

MAFCO49%
×Draw28%
Red Lions23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MAFCO
1.36
Red Lions
0.85

MAFCO creates 60% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 49 away

creates per match

MAFCO
1.25
Red Lions
0.82

allows per match

MAFCO
0.89
Red Lions
1.47

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par
Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw
77%
MAFCO or Red Lions
72%
Draw or Red Lions
51%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+
23%
Red Lions wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals
74%
MAFCO 2+ goals
39%
MAFCO 3+ goals
16%
Red Lions 1+ goals
57%
Red Lions 2+ goals
21%
Red Lions 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)
68%
Red Lions (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Red Lions away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Red Lions defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Red Lions attack 0.82 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MAFCO scores more
49%
level
28%
Red Lions scores more
23%

MAFCO at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MAFCO vs Red Lions — Match Preview

MAFCO face Red Lions on July 18, 2026 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.