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MAFCO vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

MAFCO
MAFCO
Preview
12:30
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
9/19/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15
Big match
49%
MAFCO
model favours
49%28%24%

90% of Moyale Barracks’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

MAFCO49%
×Draw28%
Moyale Barracks24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MAFCO
1.38
Moyale Barracks
0.88

MAFCO creates 57% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 84 away

creates per match

MAFCO
1.25
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

MAFCO
0.89
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw
76%
MAFCO or Moyale Barracks
72%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
51%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+
23%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals
75%
MAFCO 2+ goals
40%
MAFCO 3+ goals
16%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
59%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
22%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)
67%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MAFCO scores more
49%
level
28%
Moyale Barracks scores more
24%

MAFCO at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 10% of Moyale Barracks’s matches
  • Moyale Barracks score first in only 30% of matches
  • MAFCO win just 16% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
MAFCO
LLWL
Barracks
LDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: MAFCO host Moyale Barracks

September 19, 2026: MAFCO take on Moyale Barracks in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.