MAFCO 1–1 Moyale Barracks: Result & Stats

MAFCO

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Moyale Barracks

8/31/2024

Super League · Round 15Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

MAFCO49%

×Draw28%

Moyale Barracks24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MAFCOExpected goals in this matchMoyale Barracks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.88

MAFCO

1.38

Moyale Barracks

0.88

MAFCO creates 57% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 84 away

1.25

creates per match

0.86

0.89

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

MAFCO

1.25

Moyale Barracks

0.86

allows per match

MAFCO

0.89

Moyale Barracks

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Moyale Barracks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw

76%

MAFCO or Moyale Barracks

72%

Draw or Moyale Barracks

51%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+

23%

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals

75%

MAFCO 2+ goals

40%

MAFCO 3+ goals

16%

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals

59%

Moyale Barracks 2+ goals

22%

Moyale Barracks 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)

67%

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MAFCO scores more

49%

level

28%

Moyale Barracks scores more

24%

MAFCO at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff