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MAFCO vs Mitundu Baptist — Super League 2026

MAFCO
MAFCO
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mitundu Baptist
Mitundu Baptist
4/26/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

MAFCO57%
×Draw28%
Mitundu Baptist15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MAFCO
1.38
Mitundu Baptist
0.57

MAFCO creates 142% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 4 away

creates per match

MAFCO
1.25
Mitundu Baptist
0.25

allows per match

MAFCO
0.89
Mitundu Baptist
1.50

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par
Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Mitundu Baptist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw
85%
MAFCO or Mitundu Baptist
72%
Draw or Mitundu Baptist
43%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+
28%
Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals
75%
MAFCO 2+ goals
40%
MAFCO 3+ goals
16%
Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals
43%
Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals
11%
Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)
79%
Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Mitundu Baptist away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Mitundu Baptist defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mitundu Baptist attack 0.25 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

MAFCO scores more
57%
level
28%
Mitundu Baptist scores more
15%

MAFCO at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: MAFCO 1–1 Mitundu Baptist

MAFCO and Mitundu Baptist drew 1-1 in Super League on April 26, 2026.