MAFCO 2–0 Mighty Tigers: Result & Stats

MAFCO

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mighty Tigers

9/25/2024

Super League · Round 17Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

MAFCO49%

×Draw30%

Mighty Tigers21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MAFCOExpected goals in this matchMighty Tigers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.71

MAFCO

1.25

Mighty Tigers

0.71

MAFCO creates 76% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 76 away

1.25

creates per match

0.53

0.89

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

MAFCO

1.25

Mighty Tigers

0.53

allows per match

MAFCO

0.89

Mighty Tigers

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Mighty Tigers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw

79%

MAFCO or Mighty Tigers

70%

Draw or Mighty Tigers

51%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+

23%

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals

71%

MAFCO 2+ goals

36%

MAFCO 3+ goals

13%

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals

51%

Mighty Tigers 2+ goals

16%

Mighty Tigers 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)

70%

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Mighty Tigers away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Mighty Tigers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mighty Tigers attack 0.53 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MAFCO scores more

49%

level

30%

Mighty Tigers scores more

21%

MAFCO at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff