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MAFCO vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

MAFCO
MAFCO
FT
0 – 1
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
8/12/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

MAFCO41%
×Draw29%
Kamuzu Barracks29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MAFCO
1.18
Kamuzu Barracks
0.95

MAFCO creates 24% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 81 away

creates per match

MAFCO
1.25
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

MAFCO
0.89
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw
71%
MAFCO or Kamuzu Barracks
71%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
59%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+
18%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals
69%
MAFCO 2+ goals
33%
MAFCO 3+ goals
12%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
61%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
25%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)
58%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

MAFCO scores more
41%
level
29%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
29%

MAFCO at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: MAFCO 0–1 Kamuzu Barracks

Kamuzu Barracks beat MAFCO 1-0 in Super League on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Chitowe Stadium in Nkhotakota.