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MAFCO vs Ekwendeni Hammers — Super League 2026

MAFCO
MAFCO
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
4/26/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

MAFCO49%
×Draw27%
Ekwendeni Hammers24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MAFCO
1.41
Ekwendeni Hammers
0.89

MAFCO creates 58% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 75 away

creates per match

MAFCO
1.25
Ekwendeni Hammers
0.89

allows per match

MAFCO
0.89
Ekwendeni Hammers
1.57

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par
Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Ekwendeni Hammers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw
76%
MAFCO or Ekwendeni Hammers
73%
Draw or Ekwendeni Hammers
51%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+
24%
Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals
76%
MAFCO 2+ goals
41%
MAFCO 3+ goals
17%
Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
59%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
22%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)
67%
Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Ekwendeni Hammers away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.57 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 0.89 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MAFCO scores more
49%
level
27%
Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
24%

MAFCO at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MAFCO vs Ekwendeni Hammers

MAFCO beat Ekwendeni Hammers 3-2 in Super League on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Chitowe Stadium in Nkhotakota.