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MAFCO vs CIVO United — Super League 2026

MAFCO
MAFCO
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
CIVO United
CIVO United
9/6/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

MAFCO41%
×Draw29%
CIVO United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MAFCO
1.20
CIVO United
0.98

MAFCO creates 22% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 80 away

creates per match

MAFCO
1.25
CIVO United
1.06

allows per match

MAFCO
0.89
CIVO United
1.15

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par
CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

CIVO United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw
70%
MAFCO or CIVO United
71%
Draw or CIVO United
59%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+
18%
CIVO United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals
70%
MAFCO 2+ goals
34%
MAFCO 3+ goals
12%
CIVO United 1+ goals
62%
CIVO United 2+ goals
26%
CIVO United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)
58%
CIVO United (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + CIVO United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

CIVO United attack 1.06 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

MAFCO scores more
41%
level
29%
CIVO United scores more
30%

MAFCO at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MAFCO vs CIVO United

MAFCO beat CIVO United 2-0 in Super League on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at Chitowe Stadium in Nkhotakota.