MAFCO 1–2 Blue Eagles: Result & Stats

MAFCO

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Blue Eagles

11/19/2025

Super League · Round 19Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

MAFCO39%

×Draw30%

Blue Eagles30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MAFCOExpected goals in this matchBlue Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.93

MAFCO

1.10

Blue Eagles

0.93

MAFCO creates 18% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 67 away

1.25

creates per match

0.97

0.89

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

MAFCO

1.25

Blue Eagles

0.97

allows per match

MAFCO

0.89

Blue Eagles

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par

Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Blue Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw

70%

MAFCO or Blue Eagles

70%

Draw or Blue Eagles

61%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+

16%

Blue Eagles wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals

67%

MAFCO 2+ goals

30%

MAFCO 3+ goals

10%

Blue Eagles 1+ goals

61%

Blue Eagles 2+ goals

24%

Blue Eagles 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)

56%

Blue Eagles (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Blue Eagles away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Blue Eagles defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Blue Eagles attack 0.97 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

MAFCO scores more

39%

level

30%

Blue Eagles scores more

30%

MAFCO at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff