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MAFCO vs Bangwe All Stars — Super League 2026

MAFCO
MAFCO
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bangwe All Stars
Bangwe All Stars
10/31/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Nankhaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

MAFCO50%
×Draw28%
Bangwe All Stars22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MAFCO
1.36
Bangwe All Stars
0.81

MAFCO creates 68% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 30 away

creates per match

MAFCO
1.25
Bangwe All Stars
0.73

allows per match

MAFCO
0.89
Bangwe All Stars
1.47

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par
Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Bangwe All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw
78%
MAFCO or Bangwe All Stars
72%
Draw or Bangwe All Stars
50%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+
24%
Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals
74%
MAFCO 2+ goals
39%
MAFCO 3+ goals
16%
Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals
56%
Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals
19%
Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)
69%
Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Bangwe All Stars away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Bangwe All Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bangwe All Stars attack 0.73 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

MAFCO scores more
50%
level
28%
Bangwe All Stars scores more
22%

MAFCO at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: MAFCO 0–0 Bangwe All Stars

MAFCO and Bangwe All Stars drew 0-0 in Super League on October 31, 2024.

The match was played at Nankhaka Stadium in Lilongwe.