Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Madureira vs Portuguesa RJ — League #624 2026

Madureira
Madureira
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portuguesa RJ
Portuguesa RJ
2/5/2024League #624League #624 · Championship - 6Estádio Aniceto Moscoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Madureira24%
×Draw32%
Portuguesa RJ44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madureira
0.74
Portuguesa RJ
1.10

Portuguesa RJ creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Madureira
0.67
Portuguesa RJ
1.20

allows per match

Madureira
1.00
Portuguesa RJ
0.80

finishing

Madureira+0.00on par
Portuguesa RJ+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madureira ↓

Portuguesa RJ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Madureira or draw
56%
Madureira or Portuguesa RJ
68%
Draw or Portuguesa RJ
76%

Winning margin

Madureira wins by 2+
7%
Portuguesa RJ wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Madureira 1+ goals
52%
Madureira 2+ goals
17%
Madureira 3+ goals
4%
Portuguesa RJ 1+ goals
67%
Portuguesa RJ 2+ goals
30%
Portuguesa RJ 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Madureira (draw refunded)
36%
Portuguesa RJ (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madureira at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Portuguesa RJ away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madureira attack 0.67 + Portuguesa RJ defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Portuguesa RJ attack 1.20 + Madureira defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Madureira scores more
24%
level
32%
Portuguesa RJ scores more
44%

Portuguesa RJ at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portuguesa RJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #624: Madureira 0–0 Portuguesa RJ

Madureira and Portuguesa RJ drew 0-0 in League #624 on February 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Aniceto Moscoso in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.