Madureira 2–1 Boavista SC: Result & Stats

Madureira

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Boavista SC

Rodrigo Lindoso 63'

Geovane Maranhao 44'

Brunao 45' (pen)

2/13/2026

League #624 · Quarter-finalsEstadio Conselheiro Galvao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Madureira42%

×Draw32%

Boavista SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MadureiraExpected goals in this matchBoavista SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.75

Madureira

1.04

Boavista SC

0.75

Madureira creates 39% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

0.67

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Madureira

0.67

Boavista SC

0.50

allows per match

Madureira

1.00

Boavista SC

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madureira+0.00on par

Boavista SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madureira ↓

Boavista SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Madureira or draw

74%

Madureira or Boavista SC

68%

Draw or Boavista SC

58%

Winning margin

Madureira wins by 2+

17%

Boavista SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Madureira 1+ goals

65%

Madureira 2+ goals

28%

Madureira 3+ goals

9%

Boavista SC 1+ goals

53%

Boavista SC 2+ goals

17%

Boavista SC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Madureira (draw refunded)

62%

Boavista SC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madureira at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Boavista SC away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madureira attack 0.67 + Boavista SC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.04

Boavista SC attack 0.50 + Madureira defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Madureira scores more

42%

level

32%

Boavista SC scores more

26%

Madureira at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Madureira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Rodrigo Lindoso

Madureira · M

7.5

Match Events

-5'

Ricardo Oliveira

22'

Matheus JuliãoPenalty confirmed

36'

Bere← Fellipinho

44'

Geovane Maranhao↳ Caua Coutinho

45'

BrunaoPenalty

46'

Vinicius Balotelli← Jaco

46'

Isaias← Everton

46'

Fernando← Leandrinho

57'

Isaías Pereira

61'

Gui Sales← Brunao

62'

Marcus Vinicius← Titto

63'

Marcus Vinicius

63'

Rodrigo Lindoso↳ Juninho

65'

Cauã Coutinho

67'

Fubá

73'

Wallace Camilo← Juninho

74'

Sandrinho← Lucas Silva

84'

Filipe Claudino← Geovane Maranhao

90'

Daniel Felipe← Fuba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MadureiraBoavista

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots13

2.10Expected Goals (xG)1.45

1Corners9

21Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots13

2On Target3

11Off Target5

1Blocked5

5Inside Box8

8Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

347Total Passes279

285Accurate Passes223

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

21Fouls15

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0