Madureira U20 0–0 Portuguesa RJ U20: Result & Stats

Madureira U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portuguesa RJ U20

Unknown 77'

4/19/2025

League #1082 · Group Stage - 6Estádio Aniceto Moscoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Madureira U2046%

×Draw34%

Portuguesa RJ U2020%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Madureira U20Expected goals in this matchPortuguesa RJ U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.58

Madureira U20

1.04

Portuguesa RJ U20

0.58

Madureira U20 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

0.83

creates per match

0.50

0.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Madureira U20

0.83

Portuguesa RJ U20

0.50

allows per match

Madureira U20

0.67

Portuguesa RJ U20

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madureira U20+0.00on par

Portuguesa RJ U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madureira U20 ↓

Portuguesa RJ U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Madureira U20 or draw

80%

Madureira U20 or Portuguesa RJ U20

66%

Draw or Portuguesa RJ U20

54%

Winning margin

Madureira U20 wins by 2+

19%

Portuguesa RJ U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Madureira U20 1+ goals

65%

Madureira U20 2+ goals

28%

Madureira U20 3+ goals

9%

Portuguesa RJ U20 1+ goals

44%

Portuguesa RJ U20 2+ goals

12%

Portuguesa RJ U20 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Madureira U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Portuguesa RJ U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madureira U20 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Portuguesa RJ U20 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madureira U20 attack 0.83 + Portuguesa RJ U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Portuguesa RJ U20 attack 0.50 + Madureira U20 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Madureira U20 scores more

46%

level

34%

Portuguesa RJ U20 scores more

20%

Madureira U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Madureira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff