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Madridejos vs La Roda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Madridejos
Madridejos
CANC
00:00
La Roda
La Roda
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 29Campo de Fútbol Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Madridejos45%
×Draw27%
La Roda28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madridejos
1.39
La Roda
1.02

Madridejos creates 36% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

creates per match

Madridejos
0.93
La Roda
0.41

allows per match

Madridejos
1.62
La Roda
1.85

finishing

Madridejos+0.00on par
La Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madridejos ↓

La Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Madridejos or draw
72%
Madridejos or La Roda
73%
Draw or La Roda
55%

Winning margin

Madridejos wins by 2+
22%
La Roda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Madridejos 1+ goals
75%
Madridejos 2+ goals
40%
Madridejos 3+ goals
16%
La Roda 1+ goals
64%
La Roda 2+ goals
27%
La Roda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Madridejos (draw refunded)
62%
La Roda (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madridejos at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

La Roda away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madridejos attack 0.93 + La Roda defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

La Roda attack 0.41 + Madridejos defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Madridejos scores more
45%
level
27%
La Roda scores more
28%

Madridejos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Madridejos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Madridejos host La Roda

March 15, 2020: Madridejos take on La Roda in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Madridejos host La Roda at Campo de Fútbol Nuevo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.