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Madridejos vs Calvo Sotelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Madridejos
Madridejos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
12/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 17Campo de Fútbol Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Madridejos29%
×Draw28%
Calvo Sotelo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madridejos
1.01
Calvo Sotelo
1.31

Calvo Sotelo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 93 away

creates per match

Madridejos
0.93
Calvo Sotelo
1.01

allows per match

Madridejos
1.62
Calvo Sotelo
1.09

finishing

Madridejos+0.00on par
Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madridejos ↓

Calvo Sotelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Madridejos or draw
57%
Madridejos or Calvo Sotelo
72%
Draw or Calvo Sotelo
71%

Winning margin

Madridejos wins by 2+
11%
Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Madridejos 1+ goals
64%
Madridejos 2+ goals
27%
Madridejos 3+ goals
8%
Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
73%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
38%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Madridejos (draw refunded)
40%
Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madridejos at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

Calvo Sotelo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madridejos attack 0.93 + Calvo Sotelo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.01 + Madridejos defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Madridejos scores more
29%
level
28%
Calvo Sotelo scores more
43%

Calvo Sotelo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Calvo Sotelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Madridejos 1 – 1 Calvo Sotelo

Madridejos and Calvo Sotelo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Nuevo in Madridejos.