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Madrid CFF W vs Rayo Vallecano W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
CANC
00:00
Rayo Vallecano W
Rayo Vallecano W
11/17/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 9Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Madrid CFF W52%
×Draw23%
Rayo Vallecano W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madrid CFF W
1.81
Rayo Vallecano W
1.20

Madrid CFF W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 58 away

creates per match

Madrid CFF W
1.52
Rayo Vallecano W
0.81

allows per match

Madrid CFF W
1.59
Rayo Vallecano W
2.10

finishing

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid CFF W ↓

Rayo Vallecano W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Madrid CFF W or draw
75%
Madrid CFF W or Rayo Vallecano W
77%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano W
48%

Winning margin

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
29%
Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
84%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
54%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
27%
Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals
70%
Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals
34%
Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
67%
Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid CFF W at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 118 matches

Rayo Vallecano W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid CFF W attack 1.52 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.81

Rayo Vallecano W attack 0.81 + Madrid CFF W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Madrid CFF W scores more
52%
level
23%
Rayo Vallecano W scores more
25%

Madrid CFF W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Madrid CFF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Madrid CFF W host Rayo Vallecano W

November 17, 2019: Madrid CFF W take on Rayo Vallecano W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Madrid CFF W host Rayo Vallecano W at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.