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Madrid CFF W vs Malaga W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malaga W
Malaga W
3/24/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 25Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera (San Sebastián de los Reyes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Madrid CFF W58%
×Draw22%
Malaga W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madrid CFF W
1.90
Malaga W
1.00

Madrid CFF W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 15 away

creates per match

Madrid CFF W
1.52
Malaga W
0.40

allows per match

Madrid CFF W
1.59
Malaga W
2.27

finishing

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par
Malaga W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid CFF W ↓

Malaga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Madrid CFF W or draw
80%
Madrid CFF W or Malaga W
78%
Draw or Malaga W
42%

Winning margin

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
34%
Malaga W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
85%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
56%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
29%
Malaga W 1+ goals
63%
Malaga W 2+ goals
26%
Malaga W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
75%
Malaga W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid CFF W at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 118 matches

Malaga W away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid CFF W attack 1.52 + Malaga W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.90

Malaga W attack 0.40 + Madrid CFF W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Madrid CFF W scores more
58%
level
22%
Malaga W scores more
20%

Madrid CFF W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Madrid CFF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Madrid CFF W 1 – 0 Malaga W

Madrid CFF W beat Malaga W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera (San Sebastián de los Reyes).