Madrid CFF W 1–0 Fundacion Albacete W

Madrid CFF W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fundacion Albacete W

2/3/2018

Primera División Femenina · Primera Division Women - Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Madrid CFF W51%

×Draw22%

Fundacion Albacete W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Madrid CFF WExpected goals in this matchFundacion Albacete W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.42

Madrid CFF W

2.00

Fundacion Albacete W

1.42

Madrid CFF W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 33 away

1.52

creates per match

1.24

1.59

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Madrid CFF W

1.52

Fundacion Albacete W

1.24

allows per match

Madrid CFF W

1.59

Fundacion Albacete W

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Fundacion Albacete W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid CFF W ↓

Fundacion Albacete W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Madrid CFF W or draw

73%

Madrid CFF W or Fundacion Albacete W

78%

Draw or Fundacion Albacete W

49%

Winning margin

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+

29%

Fundacion Albacete W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals

86%

Madrid CFF W 2+ goals

59%

Madrid CFF W 3+ goals

32%

Fundacion Albacete W 1+ goals

76%

Fundacion Albacete W 2+ goals

41%

Fundacion Albacete W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)

65%

Fundacion Albacete W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid CFF W at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 118 matches

Fundacion Albacete W away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.48 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid CFF W attack 1.52 + Fundacion Albacete W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.00

Fundacion Albacete W attack 1.24 + Madrid CFF W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Madrid CFF W scores more

51%

level

22%

Fundacion Albacete W scores more

27%

Madrid CFF W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Madrid CFF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff