Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Madrid CFF W vs Edf Logrono W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
CANC
00:00
Edf Logrono W
Edf Logrono W
3/22/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 23Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Madrid CFF W50%
×Draw23%
Edf Logrono W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madrid CFF W
1.77
Edf Logrono W
1.25

Madrid CFF W creates 42% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 57 away

creates per match

Madrid CFF W
1.52
Edf Logrono W
0.91

allows per match

Madrid CFF W
1.59
Edf Logrono W
2.02

finishing

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par
Edf Logrono W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid CFF W ↓

Edf Logrono W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Madrid CFF W or draw
73%
Madrid CFF W or Edf Logrono W
77%
Draw or Edf Logrono W
50%

Winning margin

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
27%
Edf Logrono W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
83%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
53%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
26%
Edf Logrono W 1+ goals
71%
Edf Logrono W 2+ goals
36%
Edf Logrono W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
65%
Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid CFF W at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 118 matches

Edf Logrono W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid CFF W attack 1.52 + Edf Logrono W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.77

Edf Logrono W attack 0.91 + Madrid CFF W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Madrid CFF W scores more
50%
level
23%
Edf Logrono W scores more
27%

Madrid CFF W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Madrid CFF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Madrid CFF W face Edf Logrono W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Madrid CFF W hosting Edf Logrono W. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Madrid CFF W host Edf Logrono W at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.