Madrid 2021 FP 2–1 Moratalaz: Result & Stats

Madrid 2021 FP

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Moratalaz

11/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Estadio La Aldehuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Madrid 2021 FP43%

×Draw26%

Moratalaz32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Madrid 2021 FPExpected goals in this matchMoratalaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.22

Madrid 2021 FP

1.46

Moratalaz

1.22

Madrid 2021 FP creates 20% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 48 away

1.37

creates per match

1.10

1.34

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.37

Moratalaz

1.10

allows per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

Moratalaz

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Moratalaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid 2021 FP ↓

Moratalaz →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Madrid 2021 FP or draw

68%

Madrid 2021 FP or Moratalaz

74%

Draw or Moratalaz

57%

Winning margin

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

21%

Moratalaz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

77%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

43%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

18%

Moratalaz 1+ goals

70%

Moratalaz 2+ goals

34%

Moratalaz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

57%

Moratalaz (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Madrid 2021 FP at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Moratalaz away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.37 + Moratalaz defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Moratalaz attack 1.10 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

43%

level

26%

Moratalaz scores more

32%

Madrid 2021 FP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Madrid 2021 FP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff