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Madrid 2021 FP vs Complutense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Madrid 2021 FP
Madrid 2021 FP
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Complutense
Complutense
3/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 35Estadio La Aldehuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Madrid 2021 FP48%
×Draw27%
Complutense24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madrid 2021 FP
1.40
Complutense
0.91

Madrid 2021 FP creates 54% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

creates per match

Madrid 2021 FP
1.37
Complutense
0.47

allows per match

Madrid 2021 FP
1.34
Complutense
1.42

finishing

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par
Complutense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid 2021 FP ↓

Complutense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Madrid 2021 FP or draw
76%
Madrid 2021 FP or Complutense
73%
Draw or Complutense
52%

Winning margin

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+
23%
Complutense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals
75%
Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals
41%
Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals
17%
Complutense 1+ goals
60%
Complutense 2+ goals
23%
Complutense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)
66%
Complutense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid 2021 FP at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Complutense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.37 + Complutense defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Complutense attack 0.47 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Madrid 2021 FP scores more
48%
level
27%
Complutense scores more
24%

Madrid 2021 FP at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Madrid 2021 FP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Madrid 2021 FP 1–0 Complutense

Madrid 2021 FP beat Complutense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Aldehuela in Fuenlabrada.