Madrid 2021 FP 1–0 Colonia Moscardó: Result & Stats

Madrid 2021 FP

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colonia Moscardó

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 41Estadio La Aldehuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Madrid 2021 FP49%

×Draw26%

Colonia Moscardó25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Madrid 2021 FPExpected goals in this matchColonia Moscardó

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.02

Madrid 2021 FP

1.54

Colonia Moscardó

1.02

Madrid 2021 FP creates 51% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 37 away

1.37

creates per match

0.70

1.34

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.37

Colonia Moscardó

0.70

allows per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

Colonia Moscardó

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid 2021 FP ↓

Colonia Moscardó →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Madrid 2021 FP or draw

75%

Madrid 2021 FP or Colonia Moscardó

74%

Draw or Colonia Moscardó

51%

Winning margin

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

25%

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+

Team goals

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

79%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

45%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

20%

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals

64%

Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals

27%

Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

66%

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Madrid 2021 FP at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.37 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

49%

level

26%

Colonia Moscardó scores more

25%

Madrid 2021 FP at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Madrid 2021 FP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Madrid 2021 FP 1–0 Colonia Moscardó

Madrid 2021 FP beat Colonia Moscardó 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Aldehuela in Fuenlabrada.

Madrid 2021 FP vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Madrid 2021 FP 1–0 Colonia Moscardó