Madrid 2021 FP 2–1 Canillas: Result & Stats

Madrid 2021 FP

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Canillas

10/2/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio La Aldehuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Madrid 2021 FP47%

×Draw25%

Canillas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Madrid 2021 FPExpected goals in this matchCanillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.19

Madrid 2021 FP

1.62

Canillas

1.19

Madrid 2021 FP creates 36% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 49 away

1.37

creates per match

1.04

1.34

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.37

Canillas

1.04

allows per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

Canillas

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Canillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid 2021 FP ↓

Canillas →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Madrid 2021 FP or draw

72%

Madrid 2021 FP or Canillas

75%

Draw or Canillas

53%

Winning margin

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

25%

Canillas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

80%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

48%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

22%

Canillas 1+ goals

70%

Canillas 2+ goals

33%

Canillas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

63%

Canillas (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Madrid 2021 FP at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Canillas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.86 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.37 + Canillas defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Canillas attack 1.04 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

47%

level

25%

Canillas scores more

28%

Madrid 2021 FP at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Madrid 2021 FP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff