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Madrid 2021 FP vs Atlético Madrid II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Madrid 2021 FP
Madrid 2021 FP
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
2/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Estadio La Aldehuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Madrid 2021 FP25%
×Draw26%
Atlético Madrid II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madrid 2021 FP
0.99
Atlético Madrid II
1.47

Atlético Madrid II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 20 away

creates per match

Madrid 2021 FP
1.37
Atlético Madrid II
1.60

allows per match

Madrid 2021 FP
1.34
Atlético Madrid II
0.60

finishing

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid 2021 FP ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Madrid 2021 FP or draw
52%
Madrid 2021 FP or Atlético Madrid II
74%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
75%

Winning margin

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+
9%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals
63%
Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals
26%
Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
77%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
43%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)
35%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid 2021 FP at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.37 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.99

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Madrid 2021 FP scores more
25%
level
26%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
48%

Atlético Madrid II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Madrid 2021 FP 2 – 0 Atlético Madrid II

Madrid 2021 FP beat Atlético Madrid II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Aldehuela in Fuenlabrada.