Madlenya 1–1 Young Buffaloes: Result & Stats

Madlenya

FT

1 – 1

Young Buffaloes

5/7/2023

Premier League · Round 19Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Madlenya19%

×Draw25%

Young Buffaloes56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MadlenyaExpected goals in this matchYoung Buffaloes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.59

Madlenya

0.80

Young Buffaloes

1.59

Young Buffaloes creates 99% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 86 away

0.82

creates per match

1.86

1.32

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Madlenya

0.82

Young Buffaloes

1.86

allows per match

Madlenya

1.32

Young Buffaloes

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madlenya+0.00on par

Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madlenya ↓

Young Buffaloes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Madlenya or draw

44%

Madlenya or Young Buffaloes

75%

Draw or Young Buffaloes

81%

Winning margin

Madlenya wins by 2+

6%

Young Buffaloes wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Madlenya 1+ goals

55%

Madlenya 2+ goals

19%

Madlenya 3+ goals

5%

Young Buffaloes 1+ goals

80%

Young Buffaloes 2+ goals

47%

Young Buffaloes 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Madlenya (draw refunded)

25%

Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madlenya at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madlenya attack 0.82 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Madlenya defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Madlenya scores more

19%

level

25%

Young Buffaloes scores more

56%

Young Buffaloes at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff