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Madlenya vs Sisonkhe — Premier League 2020

Madlenya
Madlenya
FT
2 – 1
Sisonkhe
Sisonkhe
2/22/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Madlenya40%
×Draw30%
Sisonkhe30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madlenya
1.13
Sisonkhe
0.93

Madlenya creates 22% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 28 away

creates per match

Madlenya
0.82
Sisonkhe
0.54

allows per match

Madlenya
1.32
Sisonkhe
1.43

finishing

Madlenya+0.00on par
Sisonkhe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madlenya ↓

Sisonkhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Madlenya or draw
70%
Madlenya or Sisonkhe
70%
Draw or Sisonkhe
60%

Winning margin

Madlenya wins by 2+
17%
Sisonkhe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Madlenya 1+ goals
68%
Madlenya 2+ goals
31%
Madlenya 3+ goals
11%
Sisonkhe 1+ goals
61%
Sisonkhe 2+ goals
24%
Sisonkhe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Madlenya (draw refunded)
57%
Sisonkhe (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madlenya at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

Sisonkhe away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madlenya attack 0.82 + Sisonkhe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sisonkhe attack 0.54 + Madlenya defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Madlenya scores more
40%
level
30%
Sisonkhe scores more
30%

Madlenya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Madlenya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Madlenya vs Sisonkhe

Madlenya beat Sisonkhe 2-1 in Premier League on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Mayaluka Stadium in Mayaluka.