Madlenya 0–0 Mbabane Swallows: Result & Stats

Madlenya

FT

0 – 0

Mbabane Swallows

11/1/2023

Premier League · Round 5Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Madlenya22%

×Draw28%

Mbabane Swallows49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MadlenyaExpected goals in this matchMbabane Swallows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.35

Madlenya

0.81

Mbabane Swallows

1.35

Mbabane Swallows creates 67% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 83 away

0.82

creates per match

1.37

1.32

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Madlenya

0.82

Mbabane Swallows

1.37

allows per match

Madlenya

1.32

Mbabane Swallows

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madlenya+0.00on par

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madlenya ↓

Mbabane Swallows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Madlenya or draw

51%

Madlenya or Mbabane Swallows

72%

Draw or Mbabane Swallows

78%

Winning margin

Madlenya wins by 2+

7%

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Madlenya 1+ goals

56%

Madlenya 2+ goals

19%

Madlenya 3+ goals

5%

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals

74%

Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals

39%

Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Madlenya (draw refunded)

31%

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madlenya at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madlenya attack 0.82 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Madlenya defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Madlenya scores more

22%

level

28%

Mbabane Swallows scores more

49%

Mbabane Swallows at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff