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Madlenya vs Illovo — Premier League 2020

Madlenya
Madlenya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Illovo
Illovo
11/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Madlenya36%
×Draw28%
Illovo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madlenya
1.18
Illovo
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 26 away

creates per match

Madlenya
0.82
Illovo
1.04

allows per match

Madlenya
1.32
Illovo
1.54

finishing

Madlenya+0.00on par
Illovo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madlenya ↓

Illovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Madlenya or draw
64%
Madlenya or Illovo
72%
Draw or Illovo
64%

Winning margin

Madlenya wins by 2+
15%
Illovo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Madlenya 1+ goals
69%
Madlenya 2+ goals
33%
Madlenya 3+ goals
12%
Illovo 1+ goals
69%
Illovo 2+ goals
33%
Illovo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Madlenya (draw refunded)
50%
Illovo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madlenya at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

Illovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madlenya attack 0.82 + Illovo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.18

Illovo attack 1.04 + Madlenya defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Madlenya scores more
36%
level
28%
Illovo scores more
36%

Madlenya at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Madlenya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Madlenya 0–0 Illovo

Madlenya and Illovo drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Kalanga Stadium in Kalanga.