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Madla vs Eiger — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Madla
Madla
FT
2 – 1
Eiger
Eiger
5/11/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 6Madla Handelslag Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Madla60%
×Draw18%
Eiger22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madla
2.61
Eiger
1.55

Madla creates 68% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Madla
1.68
Eiger
1.15

allows per match

Madla
1.95
Eiger
3.54

finishing

Madla+0.00on par
Eiger+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madla ↓

Eiger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Madla or draw
78%
Madla or Eiger
82%
Draw or Eiger
40%

Winning margin

Madla wins by 2+
39%
Eiger wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Madla 1+ goals
93%
Madla 2+ goals
73%
Madla 3+ goals
47%
Eiger 1+ goals
79%
Eiger 2+ goals
46%
Eiger 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Madla (draw refunded)
73%
Eiger (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madla at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Eiger away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madla attack 1.68 + Eiger defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.61

Eiger attack 1.15 + Madla defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Madla scores more
60%
level
18%
Eiger scores more
22%

Madla at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Madla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Madla 2 – 1 Eiger

Madla beat Eiger 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 11, 2023.

The match was played at Madla Handelslag Stadion in Hafrsfjord.