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Madagascar vs Congo DR — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Madagascar
Madagascar
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Congo DR
Congo DR
Faneva Andriatsima 77'
Ibrahim Samuel Amada 9', -1'
Jerome Mombris -1'
Thomas Fontaine -1'
Romain Metanire -1'
Chancel Mbemba 90'
Cédric Bakambu 21', -1'
Yannick Bolasie -1'
Paul-José Mpoku -1'
Marcel Tisserand -1'
7/7/2019Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · 8th FinalsAlexandria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Madagascar37%
×Draw28%
Congo DR35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madagascar
1.23
Congo DR
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Madagascar
1.67
Congo DR
1.20

allows per match

Madagascar
1.17
Congo DR
0.80

finishing

Madagascar+0.00on par
Congo DR+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madagascar ↓

Congo DR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Madagascar or draw
65%
Madagascar or Congo DR
72%
Draw or Congo DR
63%

Winning margin

Madagascar wins by 2+
16%
Congo DR wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Madagascar 1+ goals
71%
Madagascar 2+ goals
35%
Madagascar 3+ goals
13%
Congo DR 1+ goals
70%
Congo DR 2+ goals
33%
Congo DR 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Madagascar (draw refunded)
51%
Congo DR (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madagascar at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Congo DR away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madagascar attack 1.67 + Congo DR defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Congo DR attack 1.20 + Madagascar defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Madagascar scores more
37%
level
28%
Congo DR scores more
35%

Madagascar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Madagascar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Meschack EliaCongo DRCongo DR · M
8.8

Match Events

-1'
Jerome Mombris
-1'
Thomas Fontaine
-1'
Romain Metanire
-1'
Ibrahim Samuel Amada
-1'
Yannick Bolasie
-1'
Paul-José Mpoku
-1'
Cédric Bakambu
-1'
Marcel Tisserand
9'
Ibrahim Samuel Amada↳ Lalaina Nomenjanahary
21'
Cédric Bakambu↳ Ngonda Muzinga
45'
Youssouf Mulumbu
46'
Meschack Elia← Wilfried Moke
58'
Andriamirado Andrianarimanana← Rayan Raveloson
67'
Merveille Bokadi← Youssouf Mulumbu
70'
Yannick Bolasie← Chadrac Akolo
77'
Faneva Andriatsima↳ Romain Metanire
89'
Dimitri Caloin← Lalaina Nomenjanahary
90'
Chancel Mbemba↳ Meschack Elia
90'
Paul-José Mpoku← Britt Assombalonga
97'
Djo Issama Mpeko
105'
Jérémy Morel← Carolus Andria
112'
Njiva Rakotoharimalala← Faneva Andriatsima
113'
Jérémy Morel

Possession

46%Madagascar

Shots

16Madagascar

Pass accuracy

48%Madagascar

Statistics

MadagascarCongo
Overview
46%Possession54%
16Total Shots17
4Corners12
16Fouls40
Shots
16Total Shots17
5On Target8
8Off Target8
3Blocked1
5Inside Box15
11Outside Box2
Passing
46%Possession54%
465Total Passes496
333Accurate Passes380
72%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls40
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Madagascar vs Congo DR

Madagascar and Congo DR drew 2-2 in Africa Cup of Nations on July 7, 2019.

Goals: Jerome Mombris (-1'), Thomas Fontaine (-1'), Romain Metanire (-1'), Ibrahim Samuel Amada (-1', 9'), Yannick Bolasie (-1'), Paul-José Mpoku (-1'), Cédric Bakambu (-1', 21'), Marcel Tisserand (-1'), Faneva Andriatsima (77'), Chancel Mbemba (90').

Congo DR controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Alexandria Stadium in Alexandria.