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Macva vs Sloboda Uzice — Prva Liga 2018

Macva
Macva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
3/24/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 28Stadion FK Mačva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Macva56%
×Draw27%
Sloboda Uzice17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macva
1.47
Sloboda Uzice
0.68

Macva creates 116% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 76 away

creates per match

Macva
1.37
Sloboda Uzice
0.62

allows per match

Macva
0.73
Sloboda Uzice
1.57

finishing

Macva+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macva ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Macva or draw
83%
Macva or Sloboda Uzice
73%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
44%

Winning margin

Macva wins by 2+
29%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Macva 1+ goals
77%
Macva 2+ goals
43%
Macva 3+ goals
18%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
49%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
15%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Macva (draw refunded)
77%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macva at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macva attack 1.37 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + Macva defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Macva scores more
56%
level
27%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
17%

Macva at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Macva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Macva 1–0 Sloboda Uzice

Macva beat Sloboda Uzice 1-0 in Prva Liga on March 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mačva in Šabac.