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Macva vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Macva
Macva
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
4/13/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 1Stadion FK Mačva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Macva40%
×Draw31%
Mladost Novi Sad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macva
1.08
Mladost Novi Sad
0.85

Macva creates 27% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 55 away

creates per match

Macva
1.37
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

Macva
0.73
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

Macva+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macva ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Macva or draw
72%
Macva or Mladost Novi Sad
69%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
60%

Winning margin

Macva wins by 2+
16%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Macva 1+ goals
66%
Macva 2+ goals
29%
Macva 3+ goals
10%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
57%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
21%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Macva (draw refunded)
59%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macva at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macva attack 1.37 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Macva defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Macva scores more
40%
level
31%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
28%

Macva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Macva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Macva vs Mladost Novi Sad

Mladost Novi Sad beat Macva 3-1 in Prva Liga on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mačva in Šabac.