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Macva vs Kolubara — Prva Liga 2018

Macva
Macva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kolubara
Kolubara
11/18/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 17Stadion FK Mačva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Macva43%
×Draw29%
Kolubara28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macva
1.25
Kolubara
0.95

Macva creates 32% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 50 away

creates per match

Macva
1.37
Kolubara
1.18

allows per match

Macva
0.73
Kolubara
1.12

finishing

Macva+0.00on par
Kolubara+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macva ↓

Kolubara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Macva or draw
72%
Macva or Kolubara
71%
Draw or Kolubara
57%

Winning margin

Macva wins by 2+
19%
Kolubara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Macva 1+ goals
71%
Macva 2+ goals
36%
Macva 3+ goals
13%
Kolubara 1+ goals
61%
Kolubara 2+ goals
25%
Kolubara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Macva (draw refunded)
61%
Kolubara (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macva at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

Kolubara away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macva attack 1.37 + Kolubara defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kolubara attack 1.18 + Macva defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Macva scores more
43%
level
29%
Kolubara scores more
28%

Macva at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Macva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Macva 1–0 Kolubara

Macva beat Kolubara 1-0 in Prva Liga on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mačva in Šabac.