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Macva vs Indjija — Prva Liga 2018

Macva
Macva
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Indjija
Indjija
3/12/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 26Stadion FK Mačva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Macva44%
×Draw29%
Indjija27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macva
1.25
Indjija
0.91

Macva creates 37% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 92 away

creates per match

Macva
1.37
Indjija
1.09

allows per match

Macva
0.73
Indjija
1.13

finishing

Macva+0.00on par
Indjija+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macva ↓

Indjija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Macva or draw
73%
Macva or Indjija
71%
Draw or Indjija
56%

Winning margin

Macva wins by 2+
20%
Indjija wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Macva 1+ goals
71%
Macva 2+ goals
36%
Macva 3+ goals
13%
Indjija 1+ goals
60%
Indjija 2+ goals
23%
Indjija 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Macva (draw refunded)
62%
Indjija (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macva at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

Indjija away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macva attack 1.37 + Indjija defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Indjija attack 1.09 + Macva defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Macva scores more
44%
level
29%
Indjija scores more
27%

Macva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Macva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Macva 0 – 1 Indjija

Indjija beat Macva 1-0 in Prva Liga on March 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mačva in Šabac.