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Mâcon vs Union Cosnoise — Coupe de France 2018

Mâcon
Mâcon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Cosnoise
Union Cosnoise
2/7/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundComplexe Champlevert - Terrain Pierre Guerin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mâcon29%
×Draw23%
Union Cosnoise48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mâcon
1.38
Union Cosnoise
1.83

Union Cosnoise creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mâcon
1.00
Union Cosnoise
2.00

allows per match

Mâcon
1.67
Union Cosnoise
1.75

finishing

Mâcon+0.00on par
Union Cosnoise+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mâcon ↓

Union Cosnoise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mâcon or draw
52%
Mâcon or Union Cosnoise
77%
Draw or Union Cosnoise
71%

Winning margin

Mâcon wins by 2+
13%
Union Cosnoise wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Mâcon 1+ goals
75%
Mâcon 2+ goals
40%
Mâcon 3+ goals
16%
Union Cosnoise 1+ goals
84%
Union Cosnoise 2+ goals
54%
Union Cosnoise 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mâcon (draw refunded)
38%
Union Cosnoise (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mâcon at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Union Cosnoise away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mâcon attack 1.00 + Union Cosnoise defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Union Cosnoise attack 2.00 + Mâcon defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mâcon scores more
29%
level
23%
Union Cosnoise scores more
48%

Union Cosnoise at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Cosnoise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Mâcon 2–1 Union Cosnoise

Mâcon beat Union Cosnoise 2-1 in Coupe de France on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Complexe Champlevert - Terrain Pierre Guerin in Mâcon.